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THE COMING WINTER

A Commonsense Guide to Emergency Preparedness

AuthorHouse LLC

The Coming Winter

First things first: the sky is not falling, at least not yet. If the sky is falling, then it's too late for any of this to do you much good. Things may seem bad, but chances are, you have time to make well-thought-out decisions on how you and your family should be making your preparations before anything significant happens. You have time to prioritize, save, and most importantly, pray through the decisions you are making. You may feel a sense of urgency, but don't let that overwhelm your responsibility to act prudently. We are under God's care as long as we don't decide to take things into our own hands and act as if we are not.

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Sometimes, bad things just happen. Because of the broken state of humanity and a cursed world that is unpredictable at best, we live with the constant reality that things are messed up, and we never know what's going to happen. There are accidents, disasters, tragedies, and, of course, the universal inevitabilities, such as death, that we all understand are inescapable. We all know that bad things happen, and we can't really explain or predict them. We know that someone we are close to might become seriously sick or injured. We know that natural disasters happen and that none of us lives in an area completely immune to them. Tragedies happen. Wars happen. And, as time moves on, powers shift within countries, societies degrade, and economies collapse. Calamity, after all, is just a part of life.

As this is being written, banking systems around the world are faltering, and entire continents are on the verge of slipping into chaos yet again. The Middle East is mired in growing violence and unrest, Europe is floundering, and old adversaries are gaining strength as they begin to impose their own agendas on an ever-weakening Western world. America is teetering and trying to grasp at anything to steady herself. Some say that we are looking at, for the first time since the Civil War or the Great Depression, the setting for a collapse of our economy and perhaps even our society. We all recognize a growing unrest in our country, and, while no one is exactly sure what the future holds, a sense of foreboding increases every day. People are beginning to feel in their guts that something is very wrong. We see the abuse of power, growing debt, ubiquitous greed, and moral degradation of our society; they all stand as warnings of a dark day in the future—a day when we must face the consequences of decades of bad policies, twisted truths, and fading virtues.

It shouldn't shock us, though, that our country and society are struggling. Think of it like this: every society that has come before us has collapsed, and every economy that has come before us has failed; in the six thousand years of recorded history, there has not been a single exception. All the great ancient civilizations are gone: the Egyptians, the Babylonians, the Persians, the Byzantines, the Greeks, the Romans, the Ottomans, and the list goes on and on. The Bible makes it clear: the world is fallen, and every society that has been and ever will be will suffer the consequences of original sin. Original sin, apart from God's intervention, rots the human heart and creeps into every culture, where it quietly eats away like a cancer at even our noblest of endeavors.

So, with fallen humanity as our constant and history as our reference, we can logically make the statement that, for us, it's not a matter of if our society and economy collapse, but when. This is not a statement of gloom and doom. It's simply a matter of fact; we know that our current system can't last forever, and a collapse must occur at some point. Without divine intervention, all of this is inevitable. Perhaps now is the time when it all comes crashing down, perhaps not. I, for one, sincerely hope and pray that God draws us back to Him. I pray that our country experiences another Great Awakening, repents, and is once again able to stand as a beacon of goodness and grace to the world. I also hope and pray that we avoid the cliff at the end of the long, slippery slope we are currently sliding on.

With all that being said, whether the "big one" catches up with our generation or not, one thing that we can be certain of is that there will always be smaller disasters that we will face. You will experience a day when you will wake up and find yourself surprised and a little fearful at the headlines. At some point, your home will lose power in a storm, or someone in your household will lose thir job, or any of a million other unknown calamities and mishaps will occur. We don't really want to face anything completely unprepared, and common sense tells us that we should be prepared for these smaller all-too-common events. It is in the preparation for these smaller events that we can begin to understand what it would take to be prepared for something larger.

Think of it like this: a hundred years ago, our grandparents and great-grandparents would prepare for the winter. Whether there was snow or not, there was always a winter, a time when survival was dependent on their skills and resourcefulness and on what they had stored in their pantries and barns. Winter was a time of cold and darkness and uncertainty. There were no Mega-Marts, grocery chains, or convenience stores where they could run on a Tuesday afternoon for milk and bread. Everything they needed was thoughtfully prepared in advance. They prepared for winter during summer, when there was a harvest and plenty of resources. They prepared for hard times when times were easier. Times are easy now, but we see the storm clouds on the horizon and feel the change in the air. A metaphorical "winter" is coming. Wouldn't our forefathers think we were foolish for not being ready when we have so much at our disposal?

Perspective

The Bible describes a period of time in humanity's future as, "the last days." It is a time period of ever-increasing chaos leading up to the end of the world as we know it. I grew up hearing that we were living in the last days; my parents did, too. Every Christian generation since the ascension of Christ appears to have believed that they were living in the last days, and many of them saw much darker days than the ones we are in. Imagine how the early Christians felt before the Roman Empire became Christian. These early Christians were arrested, tortured, and martyred on a daily basis; surely their belief that the end was near was valid.

World War II is another great example of a time that was much more bleak than ours. Hitler, with world domination as a goal, decimated much of Europe and attempted to exterminate the Jewish people and any Christians who opposed him; certainly those appeared as though they were the last days. We are indeed living in dark times. However, if the United States of America continues to decline and ultimately falls, it may not signal the beginning of tribulations as much as it does our moral reprehensibility and our financial incompetence.

For all the good that America has done and all the blessings from God we have experienced, we also must remember that God never removes the consequences of our actions, the consequences of our sins. If we do not take care of our collective state and federal financial responsibilities, our economy will fail, and it will do so without the need of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. If our morals continue to decay and our society suffers a collapse, it will collapse because of the decay and not necessarily because the end of the world is near. We live and prosper because of a beneficent God and the fortitude, wisdom, and temperance we demonstrate in our lives and our government that come from Him. We fail when we distance Him from our lives and country.

Whether we are living in the last days or not is out of our knowledge; only God knows. Along with that, we're not even sure whether or not we are living in our country's last days. But, back to our original point, something is coming. So, if you believe that something is coming, and you also believe in the sovereignty of God, then you must also believe that God has placed men and women such as ourselves in times such as these for His purposes.

Shouldn't we just trust God to supply us with what we need? The short answer to that question is yes. After all, the Bible tells us over and over again that we shouldn't worry, that we should trust in God, and that He will supply all our needs "according to His riches in glory." I'll say it again: God's sovereignty does not negate our responsibility to act prudently. We stand on this side of disaster and raise the alarm. We fight with all that we are to avoid disaster, yet we prepare for it nonetheless. We prepare now because God will need us during the trials to care for and reach out to those who are hurting and were unprepared. We prepare now because God will need us on the other side of a disaster to rebuild, to protect, and to preserve. Prepare now so that you can be the one to help others and not the one desperately seeking aid for yourself.

A Starting Point

So then, where to begin? It should go without saying that the first thing you must do when preparing is to understand exactly what you are preparing for. Are you preparing for a natural disaster, an economic disaster, a social disaster? Are you preparing for a week, a month, a year? Outlined in the following pages are some scenarios for events that have historically repeated themselves. Because of the rate of their historical recurrence, it is not unrealistic to presume that a similar event could happen to us. You are encouraged to prayerfully and logically consider what you think may be possible to happen. If you choose to start making preparations, a guide follows that will help you begin to list what would be necessary for you and your family to thrive in a given situation. Start small; take small steps to research and understand each part of your plan along the way.

Preparing can be expensive, and it is easy to be tempted into buying things that aren't necessary or don't actually do what they claim, so be cautious. A great example of this is in the realm of solar power systems. Many solar power systems claim to be able to run small appliances and are a wonderful alternative power source should your electricity go out. The only problem with their claim is that they neglect to tell you that their system runs off of a battery, and the solar panel only charges the battery. In the fine print you'll notice how long it takes to recharge the system using the solar panel once the battery is depleted. For example, if you have a thirty-watt solar panel and a fifty-amp-hour battery, then it may take several days of ideal sunlight conditions to recharge. So, while small solar kits may be great for camping, tailgating, or a short power outage, it would not be ideal to rely on such a small system for an extended time.

Do your homework. Don't be afraid to ask someone who knows, especially when you are preparing for your family's well being. Also, use self-control and temperance when preparing so that you don't get carried away. There are many people and resources out there that would suggest you acquire an item that seems to make sense in the moment but loses its appeal with time and consideration. Wisdom always reigns supreme.

What Does a Collapse Look Like?

If our society is in decline, what happens next? Is there a predictable outcome or some specific sudden event we can expect?

There have been many books written and many movies produced that describe such a future collapse. These imaginings typically describe anarchy and the decimation of our population, with the only solution for survival being either to build an impenetrable fortress stockpiled with weapons and food or to fence in a self-reliant community and live off of the earth. While there are elements in each of these strategies that may make sense, they don't necessarily reflect viable solutions in response to the way societies historically have fallen and how people have survived. In other words, building a fortress or living in a rural compound wouldn't really make sense 95 percent of the time, historically speaking.

Natural disasters are easier for us to understand and plan for because of our familiarity with them. Everyone has seen the effects of a hurricane or earthquake and is able to make logical decisions based on those experiences. However, none of us has ever witnessed a societal collapse, so it's more difficult to have a reference point from which to make decisions.

In the history of humanity, there have been many causes for the decline of societies. Wars, famine, plagues, poor leadership, and many other factors have all contributed to the downfalls of great societies, and any one of these, or combination thereof, may contribute to our future decline.

Historically Recurring Collapse Scenarios

There is wisdom in looking at history as well as present conditions in other parts of the world to decide how to prepare for some unknown event that could logically happen within our unique republic with its financial, moral, societal, and historical conditions. There are collapse scenarios, both recent and ancient, that we are susceptible to. The following four scenarios demonstrate some of the most common causes, recorded by history, for the collapse of a society. These are not the only ones that we may face, but they encompass those that seem most likely to apply to our unique conditions.

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Scenario One—The Temporary Hardship

The most likely scenario that our country will face is a temporary hardship, such as a war or a depression, that will dramatically impact our entire nation but will have a recovery period afterward. This event may not completely collapse our society but may dramatically change the way we live, if only for a brief period of time.

Now, while this may be a dramatic event, it may not be as severe as those we have encountered in the past. Remember, the foundation of our country started with war and a pieced-together currency. People feared that we would be overrun and never even see our independence. However, the United States defeated the British, and the American people endured.

The War of 1812 brought our country a similar experience, and the American people endured then as well. The Civil War ripped our country apart, and those who lived through it witnessed days so dark that ours pale in comparison. We can look at everything from the Great Depression to World War II and remember that our country has seen darker days than the ones we are in now and has come out on the other side stronger and more resolute; the American people endure with God as our guide. It may be difficult for a while, but with God and the American people's resolute spirit, we will continue to endure.

Scenario Two—The Slow and Steady Downfall

Is our society already in collapse? What if no one has noticed because we no longer have anything but history and our grandparents' anecdotal stories about "the good old days" by which to judge our descent?

This scenario suggests that our society is already in a collapse mode that manifests itself in almost imperceptible ways to the general public: a slow and steady rise in the cost of living, more limited access to medical care, a greater divide between the rich and poor, fewer people controlling more, less access to quality education, and fewer job opportunities.

If we are experiencing this scenario, then this cycle will continue to slowly degrade the country until it weakens to the point that we can no longer sustain the entire country as a single, unified republic. Individual states or regions will do better than others and begin to distance themselves from the problems of the rest of the country. Our currency will continue to inflate until it's worthless and people are forced to either begin to barter or become more indentured to survive.

Everything from food to medicine will simply become harder to get. From generation to generation, quality of life will degrade until the society will be overrun with strife, or outside forces will take advantage of us to the point that our country will be completely unrecognizable from its peak. A classic example of this slow and steady downfall can be seen in the collapse of the Roman Empire.

Scenario Three—A Fiscal Collapse

When a government continues to spend more than it takes in, it eventually reaches a point when it must recoup these costs by either financially suppressing its people (i.e., taxation, penalties, fines, etc.) or begin to physically suppress a portion of society (i.e., reduction in social programs, removal of rights from people groups, etc.) in order to maintain the status quo. When a government can no longer maintain the levels of financial suppression necessary, it must incorporate physical suppression. When a government is unwilling or unable to suppress physically, it collapses, and the society it created collapses. The collapse of the Soviet Union is an example of a fiscal collapse. This scenario is, in part, being acted out now in our country as some lobby for ever greater taxes while spending obscene amounts of money. We are approaching (some argue that we have already reached) a deficit and debt that is mathematically impossible to reconcile.

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Excerpted from THE COMING WINTER by J. Edward Cook. Copyright © 2014 J. Edward Cook. Excerpted by permission of AuthorHouse LLC.
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