Interviews
On Wednesday, May 21st, the barnesandnoble.com Author Auditorium welcomed Professor Michael Dertouzos, director of MIT's Laboratory for Computer Science, who joined us to discuss his new book, WHAT WILL BE.
Question: Can you recommend any good books, besides WHAT WILL BE, about the Internet, information technology, etc.?
Michael L Dertouzos: The other two major books are: Bill Gates's THE ROAD AHEAD and Nicholas Negroponte's BEING DIGITAL. There are at least a hundred other books in the computer aisles in any major bookstore.
Question: What are three positive and three negative effects you see the Internet/WWW having on our society?
Michael L Dertouzos: For positive, increased office productivity, greater prospects for collaboration, a shared set of values. For negatives, increased gap between rich and poor, more infojunk, and infocrimes.
Question: "Ubiquity" is often used when referring to the future of the Internet. When do you see this happening? What are the biggest obstacles now?
Michael L Dertouzos: Five hundred million interconnected computers by 2007. That's still only 7 percent of the world's population.
Question: Is the Internet a gold rush? Will only the Levi Strausses (for example, Cisco) get rich in the near future?
Michael L Dertouzos: No. The information marketplace is owned by and used by everyone. No single organization or small group can own it, because for the first time, each of us can sell our skills as well as buy products and services.
Question: How can managers best prepare themselves to work in the information age? How can we be more efficient and not be drowned by too much of everything?
Michael L Dertouzos: Stay vigilant by reading constantly. The terrain is changing daily.
Question: Can you please explain "bodynets"? This is something completely foreign to me. Thank you.
Michael L Dertouzos: Bodynets were inspired by the redundancy of having displays and push buttons on cellular phones, LCD diaries, video and audio Walkmen, pagers, etc., that a person carries. The bodynet is a network that connects all theses devices to a shared display, speakers, and mikes, on wearable glasses.
Question: Do you feel that Hollywood has a good grasp on technology that will affect the future? It always seems that the movies present a new idea in futuristic technology, the public sees it as fantastical, and then boom, the new technology appears soon after.
Michael L Dertouzos: Yes. It was the same with Jules Verne.
Question: I saw you on CNET the other night! It prompted me to buy the book. Let me ask you this: Where do you think Microsoft will be in five years?
Michael L Dertouzos: Thanks! If Microsoft continues to make the right moves, as it is doing now, it will continue to be a major factor, perhaps even a bigger factor, than it is today.
Question: David Shenk was on here last night, and he talked about the overload of information that comes across in the Information Age to the average person. Do you think that this in unhealthy?
Michael L Dertouzos: Any excess of this kind is unhealthy, like eating ten chocolates a day. I have faith that the self-preservation instincts we have carried for thousands of years will make us throw away the infojunk before suffering too much.
Question: What is the main audience you are trying to reach with this book?
Michael L Dertouzos: All people with a great interest in where we are headed with the new world of information.
Question: Michael -- Hey there -- I saw you on CNET the other night, and at the end you said that the future lies in speech-understanding programs -- can you elaborate and also project when will this hit the mainstream (like how the Windows interface replaced the DOS C:> prompt?)
Michael L Dertouzos: I expect speech interfaces to be available for a few hundred dollars within five to seven years. They will be dominant because we are born with mouths and ears, not keyboards and mouse sockets. But they will not be the only human interfaces.
Question: Who do you think the main players of the technology future will be? Telephone companies? Cable companies? Media companies? Hardware/software companies? Will Microsoft own them all?
Michael L Dertouzos: All of the above will win, because each serves different purposes. No single company can dominate, any more than a single company could have manufactured all the products in the Industrial Age. The real winners and players will be all of us.
Question: You mean that Gates had something new to say in his book?
Michael L Dertouzos: Each one of the three books I have mentioned has new things to say. Reading all three, and more, contributes to the debate concerning an unknown but exciting future.
Question: I read that you were one of the cohosts at the recently concluded Davos summit. Can you share your thoughts as to whether this gathering of the world's elite had any novel ideas on where information technology is heading and how to best take advantage of it?
Michael L Dertouzos: This get-together of 1,300 CEOs, 300 ministers and prime ministers, and 300 intellectuals, was the most exciting get-together I have ever attended. To have all these people discuss where they feel we are headed, there is tremendous value in our learning from each other.
Question: I have heard the term "ExtraNet." Do you know what it means ??
Michael L Dertouzos: No.
Question: Is the Clinton/Gore administration forward thinking in terms of technology ? What are some of the key initiatives ?
Michael L Dertouzos: They are among the most forward-thinking administrations in the world. The top current initiative is the wiring of America's schools.
Question: As director of the Laboratory for Computer Science at MIT, you must see a lot of exciting and futuristic technologies. Where do you think the biggest breakthroughs will come from?
Michael L Dertouzos: The biggest breakthrough ahead is not a gadget, or a piece of software. It is the huge effect of multiple technologies coming into the lives of us ancient humans, and helping us live and work, laugh, and play, with a modern set of tools. It will be a movement as big as, or bigger than, the Industrial Revolution. I am privileged to be part of it, as I know you feel also. And I thank you, and everyone else, for a great set of questions.
Moderator: Michael Dertouzos has left the auditorium, to deliver a speech on many of the same topics raised in tonight's chat. Thank you for participating!