Table of Contents

Acknowledgments vii

Introduction xi

An Important Note on Temperature Histories and Trends xvii

1 A Little History 1

2 The Lukewarm World 7

3 Autumn in Paris 11

4 Getting Real about the Greenhouse Effect 19

5 Human Nature and Forecasting Models 21

6 Grand Narratives, Availability Cascades, and Granfalloons 25

7 In the Availability Cascade, What Is Not Real Is Real 31

8 The Availability Cascade Runs Amok 37

9 Paris, December 1, 2015 45

10 California Cascade 47

11 Outside the Cascade: Reality Bites 51

12 Breaking Up with Your Forecast is Hard to Do 55

13 Is the Pause Just an Artifact of Dad Data? 59

14 Testing the Climate Models 65

15 Paris, December 4, 2015 69

16 If You Explain Everything, You Explain Nothing 73

17 Popper vs. Knobs on the Climate Machine: Lukewarmers Choose Popper 79

18 Does This Tail Make Me Look Fat? 85

19 Some More Insensitivity about Global Warming 91

20 The Sociology of Climate Alarmism 99

21a The First National Climate Assessment: Willful Violation of Normative Science 107

21b The Second National Climate Assessment: Where's the Rest of the Science? 111

21c The Third National Climate Assessment: "A Key Deliverable of President Obama's Climate Action Plan" 119

22 Paris, December 10, 2015 125

23 U.S. Temperature Assessments: Cherries for the Picking 129

24 Alternative Reality: The Luke warmer's Greener World 135

25 Back to the Genetic Garden of Eden? 139

26 Rational Optimism in the Lukewarm World 145

27 Food to Burn 151

28 Is Global Warming Making Us Ill? 155

29 The Sexiest Storms on Earth 163

30 How the U.S. Global Change Research Program Sees Hurricanes 171

31 Typhoon Haiyan: "Man Has Slapped Nature in the Face" 175

32 Are Floods Increasing? 179

33 Tornado Warning! 185

34 Quiz Time: Damages from Extreme Weather 189

35 Polar Ice Extent: A Tale of two Hemispheres 191

36 Death of the Polar Bear? 199

37 The End of the Apocalypse 203

38 Human Nature 211

39 Climate MAGICC 215

40 Damn the MAGICC, Full Speed Ahead 219

41 Paris, December 12, 2015 223

42 Paris's Last Tango? 231

Appendix 233

Index 235