The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Recurring Themes and Regional Variations

by Richard O. Hundley, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, Richard C. Neu

Overview

Projects the impact of information technology and the information revoultion on areas across the globe for the next 10 to 15 years.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780833034243
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	10/15/2003
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	208
Product dimensions:	6.70(w) x 8.96(h) x 0.58(d)
Lexile:	1650L (what's this?)

Table of Contents

	Preface	iii
	Figures	xix
	Tables	xxi
	Summary	xxiii
	Acknowledgments	xli
	Abbreviations	xliii
Chapter 1	Introduction	1
	We Addressed a Wide Range of Questions	2
	Globalization and the Information Revolution Are Closely Linked	4
	Some Topics We Did Not Address--Deliberately	5
	The Course of This Effort	5
	This Report	6
	Much Has Happened Since We Began This Effort	7
	Notes	8
Part I.	Recurring Themes
Chapter 2	New Technology Developments Will Continually Drive the Information Revolution	11
	It Is Useful to Distinguish Among Developments in Technology, Products, and Services	11
	Some Technology Developments Can Be Foreseen	12
	Product Developments Will Allow Information Devices to Be Ubiquitous, Wearable, and in Continuous Contact	13
	Services Developments Will Greatly Extend Access to, and the Usefulness of, Information Systems	14
	Markets Will Decide What Possible Products and Services Become Actual and Widespread	18
	Some Tensions Arising from These Developments Will Affect the Growth and Spread of IT-Related Products and Services	20
	A Period of Information Technology Consolidation Is Both Likely and Healthy	21
	Notes	22
Chapter 3	The Information Revolution is Enabling New Business Models That are Transforming the Business and Financial Worlds	25
	Many New Business Models Are Arising	25
	Notes	30
Chapter 4	The Information Revolution is Affecting Mechanisms of Governance and Empowering New Political Actors	35
	Some Traditional Mechanisms of Governance Are Becoming Problematic	35
	New Governmental Mechanisms Are Being Enabled	36
	New Political Actors Are Being Empowered	36
	The Information Revolution Could Over Time Change the Role of the Nation-State: The Jury Is Still Out	37
	Different Nations Will Take Different Approaches to Dealing with These Changes	39
	The Events of 9/11 May Lead to Increased Governmental Intervention into IT Developments	39
	Notes	40
Chapter 5	The Information Revolution Both Shapes and is Shaped by Social and Cultural Values in Significant Ways	45
	The Information Revolution Is Being Enabled by Technology but Driven Primarily by Nontechnical Factors, Including Social and Cultural Factors	45
	Digital Divides Within and Between Nations Will Persist, but Their Future Scope, Duration, and Signifiance Are Subject to Debate	46
	Ability to Acquire and Use Knowledge Will Be Critical for Success in the Information Society: Developing Human Capital Appropriately Is Key	47
	Globalization, Boosted by the Information Revolution, Will Continue to Have Multivalenced Social and Cultural Effects	49
	Will IT-Enabled Globalization Lead to Greater Homogeneity or Greater Heterogeneity in Sociocultural Terms? The Answer is "Yes" to Both	50
	The Information Revolution Raises Significant Social-Cultural Questions for Which Well-Grounded Research Answers Are Unavailable	50
	Notes	52
Chapter 6	Many Factors Shape and Characterize a Nation's Approach to the Information Revolution	55
	Some Factors Are Causative	55
	Other Factors Are Effects, Not Causes	60
	Notes	63
Part II.	Regional Variations
Chapter 7	North America Will Continue in the Vanguard of the Information Revolution	71
	The North American Economy and Society Are Well Positioned to Meet the Challenges of the Information Revolution	71
	North America Will Exploit These Advantages to Continue in the Vanguard of the Information Revolution	72
	The Dot-Com Crash and Telecom Implosion May Slow the Pace of IT-Related Developments in North America, but Only Temporarily	73
	The Events of 9/11 May Lead to Increased Governmental Intervention in IT Developments in North America	73
	North America Will, in General, Deal Well with the Stresses Generated by the Information Revolution	74
	Notes	75
Chapter 8	The Information Revolution is Following a Somewhat Different and More Deliberate Course in Europe	77
	Europeans Place More Emphasis on Wireless	77
	The Information Revolution in Europe Is Developing in a Different Climate	78
	The Course of the Information Revolution in Europe Is Somewhat Different	80
	Will, or Must, Europe Become More Like America? Maybe Yes, Maybe No	81
	Some Europeans View American Dominance as Part of the "Dark Side" of the Information Revolution	82
	Notes	82
Chapter 9	Many Asia-Pacific Nations are Poised to Do Well in the Information Revolution, Some are Not	85
	Asia-Pacific Nations Vary Greatly in Their Information Revolution Postures	85
	The Impact of the Information Revolution on Politics and Governance in the Asia-Pacific Region Varies Widely from Nation to Nation	91
	What Does the Future Hold for the Asia-Pacific Region?	93
	Notes	96
Chapter 10	Latin America Faces Many Obstacles in Responding to the Information Revolution: Some Nations Will Rise to the Challenge, Others Will Not	103
	Today Most Latin American Nations Are "Also-Rans" in the Information Revolution, as They Are in the Global Economy	103
	Latin American Nations Can Be Divided into "Leaders," "Successful Outliers," and the Rest	104
	Latin America Faces Many Obstacles in Exploiting Opportunities Offered by the Information Revolution	107
	What Does the Future Hold for Latin America? Probably More of the Same	108
	Notes	109
Chapter 11	Few Middle Eastern and North African Nations Will Fully Experience the Information Revolution, Some May Miss It Altogether	113
	IT Penetration Is Generally Low in Most MENA Nations	113
	MENA Nations Can Be Grouped into Three Categories Regarding the Information Revolution	114
	The Social Implications of the Information Revolution for the MENA Nations Could Be Wide-Ranging	116
	Few MENA Nations Will Fully Exploit the Information Revolution, Causing This Region to Fall Even Further Behind OECD Nations	116
	Notes	120
Chapter 12	Most Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa Will Fall Further Behind in the Information Revolution	125
	There Are Extreme Disparities Among African Nations; As a Result, Few Statements Apply Universally	125
	In Africa, Mass Media Predominate over Point-to-Point Communication	125
	Compared with the Rest of the World, Africa Is Falling Behind	126
	Africa's IT Problems Are Not Primarily Technical: They Involve Factors of Culture, Competence, Capital, and Control	126
	There Are, However, Positive Indications That the Information Revolution Is Moving Forward in Africa	129
	External Factors May Indirectly Impede IT Growth in Africa	130
	Notes	131
Part III.	Some Additional Topics (A Brief Look)
Chapter 13	Geopolitical Trends Furthered by the Information Revolution Could Pose Continuing Challenges to the United States	135
	The U.S. Economy and Society Are Well Poised to Meet the Challenges of the Information Revolution	135
	There Are Likely to Be Many Losers or Laggards Elsewhere in the World, Some of Whom Could Become Seriously Disaffected	135
	The Information Revolution Better Enables Disaffected Peoples to Combine and Organize, Thereby Rendering Them Powers That Must Be Dealt With	136
	The Existence of These Disaffected (and Organized) Losers or Laggards Could Lead to Trends in the World That May Challenge Vital U.S. Interests	136
	These Trends Would Pose Continuing Challenges to U.S. Interests	137
	Notes	137
Chapter 14	What Future Events Could Change These Projections?	139
	Future "Killer Apps," Unclear at Present, Will Determine the Precise Nature of IT-Driven Transformations	139
	Many Things Can Slow Down or Speed Up the Pace of IT-Driven Transformations	140
	Future Geopolitical Events Could Adversely Affect How Different Nations and Regions of the World Fare	140
	No Matter What Happens, the Degree to Which IT Ultimately Changes the World Is Unlikely to Change	140
	Notes	141
Chapter 15	The Information Revolution is Part of a Broader Technology Revolution with Even Profounder Consequences	143
	Advances in Biotechnology and Nanotechnology Will Also Greatly Change the World	143
	There Are Many Synergies Between IT and These Other Revolutionary Technologies	144
	The Consequences of the Biorevolution Will Be Especially Profound and Quite Controversial	145
	As with the Information Revolution, the Bio- and Nanorevolutions Will Play Out Unevenly Throughout the World	145
	Notes	145
Appendix	Participants in the Rand/Nic Information Revolution Conferences	147
	References	163