Table of Contents
The RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy iii
CTRMP Advisory Board v
Preface vii
Figures xiii
Tables xv
Summary xvii
Acknowledgments xxv
Abbreviations xxvii
Introduction 1
Analyzing Maritime Terrorism: Threat, Vulnerability, Consequences, and Liability 2
Focus on the Problem: Exploring Attacks Against Passenger and Container Shipping 6
The Contemporary Threat of Maritime Terrorism 9
Factors Underscoring the Contemporary Perceived Threat of Maritime Terrorism: Vulnerability, Capability, and Intent 10
Vulnerability of Maritime Targets 12
Capability of Terrorist Groups 13
Intent of Terrorist Groups 15
Contemporary Maritime-Capable Terrorist Groups 19
Scenarios of Potential Maritime Terrorist Activity in the Future 27
Consequences of Maritime Terrorism 29
Parties Affected by Maritime Terrorism 30
Connecting Consequences to Terrorist Events 31
Types of Consequences of Maritime Terrorism 33
Human Consequences of Terrorism 33
Economic and Intangible Consequencesof Property Damage 35
Economic and Intangible Consequences of Responding to Terrorism 36
Methods of Estimating Consequences of Maritime Terrorism 37
Civil Liability and Maritime Terrorism 39
Bounding the Scope of Civil Liability: U.S. Territory Versus International Waters 43
Civil Liability Analysis Always Begins by Identifying Who Is Hurt 46
U.S. Admiralty Law and Its Application to Maritime Terrorist Attacks 51
Defendants and Negligence Tort Claims in Maritime Terrorism 59
Maritime Security Regulations: A Source of Duty for Potential Tortfeasors 63
Maritime Terrorism, Supply Chain Disruption, and Contractual Liability 65
Discussion: Liability, Insurance, and Policy 68
Risks of Maritime Terrorism Attacks Against Cruise Ships 73
Attractiveness of Cruise Ships as Targets of Terrorism 75
Vulnerability of Cruise Ships to Terrorist Attacks 76
Potential Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on Cruise Ships 79
Human Consequences 80
Economic Consequences 81
Compensation for Injuries and Loss of Life 82
Increased Security Costs 82
Declines in Demand for Cruise Vacations 83
Other Economic Consequences 84
Intangible Consequences 85
Risks of Terrorist Attacks on Cruise Ships 85
Risks of Maritime Terrorism Attacks Against Passenger Ferries 93
Attractiveness of Ferries as Targets of Terrorism 95
Vulnerabilities of Ferries to Terrorist Attack 95
Potential Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on Ferries 99
Human Consequences 99
Economic Consequences 101
Compensation for Injuries and Loss of Life 101
Increased Security Costs 101
Other Economic Consequences 102
Intangible Consequences 102
Risks of Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Ferries 104
Risks of Maritime Terrorism Attacks Against Container Shipping 111
Attractiveness of Container Shipping as a Target of Terrorism 113
Vulnerabilities of the Container Shipping System to Terrorism 114
Potential Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on the Container Shipping System 118
Human Consequences 118
Economic Consequences 120
Intangible Consequences 124
Summary of Consequences 125
Risks of Terrorist Attacks on Container Shipping 125
Discussion 133
Conclusions and Recommendations 139
Qualitatively Assessing the Relative Risks of Maritime Terrorism 143
Bibliography 153
