The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

TIME editor-at-large and economics columnist Justin Fox describes the rise and fall of the world's most influential investing idea-the efficient markets theory-and its replacement with behavioral economics in a lively history of ideas.

Justin Fox's compelling narrative describes the rise and fall of the efficient market investing theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry. He brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the 21st century. It's a tale featuring professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. For anyone who wants to know how and why the experts make investment decisions, THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET is an essential companion, a fascinating tour of the ideas behind the evolution and mystique of Wall Street.

The efficient market hypothesis-first debated in the 1930s and then developed by University of Chicago economists and popularized by a string of bestselling books-has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds, the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all digging for information and trying to outsmart one another, will always provide the best judge of a stock's value.

Fox introduces the new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Most would agree with Yaleprofessor Robert Shiller's view that efficient markets theory "represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought." They've replaced efficient markets theory with behavioral economics, and among them are several winners of the Nobel Prize. The behaviorists tap pychological models of human behavior and their implications for investment decisions. They find that investors overreact, underreact, make irrational decisions on imperfect data. Through interviews with virtually every major thinker of modern finance, including ten Nobel laureates, Fox unveils the secrets and shortfalls of the investment ideas now driving the market in the 21st century.

THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET will join Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Chancellor's Take the Hindmost, and Lowenstein's When Genius Failed as a landmark treatment of the history of American markets. As with James Gleick or Simon Winchester, Fox creates fascinating portrayals of the driven and brilliant thinkers who have created the world as we know it.

1103371632
The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

TIME editor-at-large and economics columnist Justin Fox describes the rise and fall of the world's most influential investing idea-the efficient markets theory-and its replacement with behavioral economics in a lively history of ideas.

Justin Fox's compelling narrative describes the rise and fall of the efficient market investing theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry. He brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the 21st century. It's a tale featuring professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. For anyone who wants to know how and why the experts make investment decisions, THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET is an essential companion, a fascinating tour of the ideas behind the evolution and mystique of Wall Street.

The efficient market hypothesis-first debated in the 1930s and then developed by University of Chicago economists and popularized by a string of bestselling books-has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds, the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all digging for information and trying to outsmart one another, will always provide the best judge of a stock's value.

Fox introduces the new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Most would agree with Yaleprofessor Robert Shiller's view that efficient markets theory "represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought." They've replaced efficient markets theory with behavioral economics, and among them are several winners of the Nobel Prize. The behaviorists tap pychological models of human behavior and their implications for investment decisions. They find that investors overreact, underreact, make irrational decisions on imperfect data. Through interviews with virtually every major thinker of modern finance, including ten Nobel laureates, Fox unveils the secrets and shortfalls of the investment ideas now driving the market in the 21st century.

THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET will join Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Chancellor's Take the Hindmost, and Lowenstein's When Genius Failed as a landmark treatment of the history of American markets. As with James Gleick or Simon Winchester, Fox creates fascinating portrayals of the driven and brilliant thinkers who have created the world as we know it.

29.24 Out Of Stock
The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

by Justin Fox
The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

by Justin Fox

Paperback

$29.24 
  • SHIP THIS ITEM
    Temporarily Out of Stock Online
  • PICK UP IN STORE

    Your local store may have stock of this item.

Related collections and offers


Overview

TIME editor-at-large and economics columnist Justin Fox describes the rise and fall of the world's most influential investing idea-the efficient markets theory-and its replacement with behavioral economics in a lively history of ideas.

Justin Fox's compelling narrative describes the rise and fall of the efficient market investing theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry. He brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the 21st century. It's a tale featuring professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. For anyone who wants to know how and why the experts make investment decisions, THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET is an essential companion, a fascinating tour of the ideas behind the evolution and mystique of Wall Street.

The efficient market hypothesis-first debated in the 1930s and then developed by University of Chicago economists and popularized by a string of bestselling books-has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds, the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all digging for information and trying to outsmart one another, will always provide the best judge of a stock's value.

Fox introduces the new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Most would agree with Yaleprofessor Robert Shiller's view that efficient markets theory "represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought." They've replaced efficient markets theory with behavioral economics, and among them are several winners of the Nobel Prize. The behaviorists tap pychological models of human behavior and their implications for investment decisions. They find that investors overreact, underreact, make irrational decisions on imperfect data. Through interviews with virtually every major thinker of modern finance, including ten Nobel laureates, Fox unveils the secrets and shortfalls of the investment ideas now driving the market in the 21st century.

THE MYTH OF THE RATIONAL MARKET will join Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Chancellor's Take the Hindmost, and Lowenstein's When Genius Failed as a landmark treatment of the history of American markets. As with James Gleick or Simon Winchester, Fox creates fascinating portrayals of the driven and brilliant thinkers who have created the world as we know it.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780857193698
Publisher: Harriman House Publishing
Publication date: 11/01/2013
Pages: 400
Product dimensions: 6.10(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

Justin Fox is editorial director of the Harvard Business Review Group, and a contributor to Time magazine and PBS's Nightly Business Report. Previously, he was a columnist at Time and an editor and writer at Fortune. He lives in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with his wife and son.

Table of Contents

Introduction: It Had Been Working So Exceptionally Well xi

Early Days

1 Irving Fisher Loses His Briefcase, and Then His Fortune 3

The first serious try to impose reason and science upon the market comes in the early decades of the twentieth century. It doesn't work out so well.

2 A Random Walk from Fred Macaulay to Holbrook Working 26

Statistics and mathematics begin to find their way into the economic mainstream in the 1930s, setting the stage for big changes to come.

The Rise, of the Rational Market

3 Harry Markowitz Brings Statistical Man to the Stock Market 47

The modern quantitative approach to investing is assembled out of equal parts poker strategy and World War II gunnery experience.

4 A Random Walk from Paul Samuelson to Paul Samuelson 60

The proposition that stock movements are mostly unpredictable goes from intellectual curiosity to centerpiece of an academic movement.

5 Modigliani and Miller Arrive at A Simplifying Assumption 75

Finance, the business school version of economics, is transformed from a field of empirical research and rules of thumb to one ruled by theory.

6 Gene Fama Makes the Best Proposition in Economics 89

At the University of Chicago's Business School in the 1960s, the argument that the market is hard to outsmart grows into a conviction that it is perfect.

The Conquest of Wall Street

7 Jack Bogle Takes on the Performance Cult (And Wins) 111

The lesson that maybe it's not even worth trying to beat the market makes its circuitous way into the investment business.

8 Fischer Black Chooses to Focus on the Probable 132

Finance scholars figure out some ways to measure and control risk. More important, they figure out how to get paid for doing so.

9 Michael Jensen Gets Corporations to Obey the Market 153

The efficient market meets corporate America. Hostile takeovers and lots of talk about shareholder value ensue.

The Challenge

10 Dick Thaler Gives Economic Man A Personality 175

Human nature begins to find its way back into economics in the 1970s, and economists begin to study how markets sometimes fail.

11 Bob Shiller Points Out the Most Remarkable Error 191

Some troublemaking young economists demonstrate that convincing evidence for financial market rationality is sadly lacking.

12 Beating the Market with Warren Buffett and Ed Thorp 211

Just because professional investors as a group can't reliably outperform the market doesn't mean that some professional investors can't.

13 Alan Greenspan Stops A Random Plunge Down Wall Street 227

The crash of 1987 exposes big flaws in the rational finance view of risk. But a rescue by the Federal Reserve averts a full reexamination.

The Fall

14 Andrei Shleifer Moves Beyond Rabbi Economics 247

The efficient market's critics triumph by showing why irrational market forces can sometimes be just as pervasive as the rational ones.

15 Mike Jensen Changes His Mind About the Corporation 265

The argument that financial markets should always set the priorities-for corporations and for society-loses its most important champion.

16 Gene Fama and Dick Thaler Knock Each Other Out 287

Where has the debate over market rationality ended up? In something more than a draw and less than a resounding victory.

Epilogue: The Anatomy of A Financial Crisis 309

Afterword 323

Cast of Characters 329

Acknowledgments 337

A Note on Sources 339

Notes 341

Index 379

What People are Saying About This

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Justin Fox is a truly insightful fellow who can see things with his own eyes—a rare, very rare attribute.”

Paul Krugman

“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do — because this one is different. Fox’s book is not an idle exercise in intellectual history, which makes it a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.”

Peter Bernstein

“This wise and witty book is must reading for anyone who wonders what makes financial markets tick. Even those who have wrestled with this question for years will be glad to have read Fox’s compelling history.”

Roger Lowenstein

“A fascinating historical narrative.”

Cory Doctorow

“A thoughtful, often fascinating, always illuminating history of the idea of market rationality.”

Dan Neil

“A tough, tasty steak of a book.”

Barry Ritholz

“Good wonky fun.”

From the B&N Reads Blog

Customer Reviews