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    Energy for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines

    Energy for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines

    4.5 2

    by Richard A. Muller


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      ISBN-13: 9780393083941
    • Publisher: Norton, W. W. & Company, Inc.
    • Publication date: 07/30/2012
    • Sold by: Barnes & Noble
    • Format: eBook
    • Pages: 288
    • Sales rank: 248,555
    • File size: 5 MB

    Richard A. Muller is professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and the best-selling author of Physics for Future Presidents. For his outstanding work in experimental cosmology, he was awarded a 1982 MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship, and also a share of the 2015 Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics for the discovery of dark energy.

    Table of Contents

    Acknowledgments xiii

    Preface xv

    Introduction 3

    I Energy Catastrophes 9

    1 Fukushima 11

    Meltdown 11

    Radioactive Release 15

    Radioactivity and Death 17

    The Denver Dose 20

    Bottom Line: What Should We Do? 23

    2 The Gulf Oil Spill 26

    The Deepwater Horizon Accident 29

    Damage 33

    Iatrogenic Disease 35

    3 Global Warming and Climate Change 38

    A Brief Introduction to Global Warming 39

    Tipping Points 50

    Local Variability 52

    Hurricanes 54

    Tornadoes 56

    Polar Warming 57

    The Hockey Stick 60

    Sea Level Rise 62

    Assuming It Is a Threat-Can We Stop Global Warming? 65

    Geoengineering 72

    The Global-Warming Controversy 73

    II The Energy Landscape 77

    Recycled Energy 81

    Energy Security 82

    4 The Natural-Gas Windfall 87

    Fracking and Horizontal Drilling 93

    Shale Gas Reserves 96

    Ocean Methane 98

    5 Liquid Energy Security 102

    Hubbert's Peak 105

    6 Shale Oil 109

    7 Energy Productivity 112

    Invest for a 17.8% Annual Return, Tax-Free, with No Risk 114

    Invest for a 209% Annual Return, Tax-Free, with No Risk 118

    Government Energy Productivity Policy 119

    Other Great Investments 123

    Cool Roofs 123

    More Efficient Autos 124

    Energy-Efficient Refrigerators 126

    The McKinsey Chart 127

    Feel-Good Measures That Don't Necessarily Work 129

    Buses 130

    Recycling Paper 131

    Power Blackouts 131

    The Smart Grid 134

    A Case Study: Smart Meters in California 135

    III Alternative Energy 139

    8 Solar Surge 145

    The Physics of Sunlight 145

    Solar Thermal 146

    Photovoltaic Cells 150

    Silicon 153

    CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) 154

    CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Selenide) 155

    Multijunction Cells 157

    Solar-Cell Summary 158

    9 Wind 159

    10 Energy Storage 167

    Batteries 167

    The Physics and Chemistry of Batteries 169

    The Future of Batteries 170

    Bottled Wind: Compressed-Air Energy Storage (CAES) 171

    Flywheels 173

    Supercapacitors 176

    Hydrogen and Fuel Cells 177

    Natural Gas 177

    11 The Coming Explosion of Nuclear Power 179

    Blowing Up 180

    Cost 183

    Small Modular Nuclear Reactors 185

    Running Out of Uranium? 192

    Fukushima Deaths 193

    Nuclear Waste Storage 194

    The Coming Nuclear Explosion 197

    12 Fusion 199

    Tokamak 201

    NIF, the National Ignition Facility 205

    Beam Fusion 207

    Muon Fusion 210

    Cold Fusion 213

    13 Biofuels 219

    Ethanol from Corn 220

    Biodegradable Is Bad? 221

    Pseudo-biofuels 222

    Ethanol from Cellulose 223

    Ethanol from Algae 225

    14 Synfuel and High-Tech Fossil Fuels 227

    Synfuel 228

    Coal Bed Methane 231

    Coal Bed Gasification 231

    Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) 233

    Oil Sands 234

    15 Alternative Alternatives: Hydrogen, Geothermal, Tidal, and Wave Power 236

    Hydrogen 236

    Geothermal 239

    Tidal Power 243

    Wave Power 246

    16 Electric Automobiles 248

    The Electric Auto Fad 250

    Tesla Roadster 251

    Chevy Volt 252

    Nissan Leaf 253

    Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles 254

    Lead-Acid Batteries 255

    Recharge Time 256

    Effective Miles per Gallon 256

    Ordinary Hybrids 258

    Battery Challenges 259

    17 Natural-Gas Automobiles 261

    18 Fuel Cells 266

    19 Clean Coal 273

    IV What is Energy? 281

    The Properties of Energy 281

    Energy in Foods, Fuels, and Objects 281

    Is Energy a Thing? 282

    The Meaning of Energy 284

    Energy as Taught to High School Students and College Freshmen 285

    Energy as Taught to Sophomores 285

    Energy as Taught to Juniors 286

    Energy as Taught to Seniors and Graduates 286

    The Beauty of Energy 288

    V Advice for Future Presidents 291

    Energy Technology Policy 294

    Energy Productivity 294

    Natural Gas 294

    Shale Oil 294

    Synfuel 295

    Hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids 296

    Nuclear 296

    Key Considerations 297

    Global Warming and China 297

    More on Energy Productivity 299

    Electric Power Grid and Venture Capitalism 301

    Subsidies 301

    Energy Catastrophes 301

    Beware 302

    Beware of Fads 302

    Beware of Risk-Benefit Calculations 302

    Beware of the Precautionary Principle 303

    Beware of Optimism Bias and Skepticism Bias 303

    Beware of Aphorisms 304

    Your Legacy 305

    Notes 307

    Credits 323

    Index 327

    What People are Saying About This

    From the Publisher

    "An informative, comprehensive discussion of important economic and environmental issues." —-Kirkus

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    The author of Physics for Future Presidents returns to educate all of us on the most crucial conundrum facing the nation: energy.

    The near-meltdown of Fukushima, the upheavals in the Middle East, the BP oil rig explosion, and the looming reality of global warming have reminded the president and all U.S. citizens that nothing has more impact on our lives than the supply of and demand for energy. Its procurement dominates our economy and foreign policy more than any other factor. But the “energy question” is more confusing, contentious, and complicated than ever before. We need to know if nuclear power will ever really be safe. We need to know if solar and wind power will ever really be viable. And we desperately need to know if the natural gas deposits in Pennsylvania are a windfall of historic proportions or a false hope that will create more problems than solutions. Richard A. Muller provides all the answers in this must-read guide to our energy priorities now and in the coming years.

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    Publishers Weekly
    UC-Berkeley physicist Muller (Physics for Future Presidents), who made headlines for first criticizing and then vindicating global warming research, explores the contentious issues that will increasingly preoccupy politicians and citizens, in this no-nonsense scientific primer on energy policy. Muller brings fresh, often contrarian perspectives to topics that have been saturated in misinformation and hype, arguing, for example, that new techniques to extract the stupendous reserves of petroleum in shale and tar sands will eliminate all talk of peak oil; that wind power and photovoltaics will boom while corn ethanol, geothermal, and tidal power will fizzle; that household energy conservation is a great investment, while public transit is usually a bad one; and that China’s soaring carbon dioxide emissions will render America’s almost irrelevant—and that the best way to abate China’s emissions is by switching from coal to natural gas. Especially revealing is his positive assessment of nuclear energy, which effectively debunks the alarmism surrounding the March 2011 Fukushima accident. The author’s explanations of the science underlying energy production are lucid but never simplistic—and often fascinating in their own right. Policy makers and casual readers alike can benefit from Muller’s eye-opening briefing, which sheds lots of light with little wasted heat. Photos. Agent: John Brockman, Brockman Inc. (Aug.)
    From the Publisher
    "An informative, comprehensive discussion of important economic and environmental issues." —Kirkus
    Kirkus Reviews
    Regarding the merits of clean energy technologies, eminent scientist Muller (Physics/Univ. of California, Berkeley; Physics for Future Presidents, 2008, etc.) offers a road map through the minefield of competing claims by security analysts, environmentalists and potential investors. The author distinguishes between concerns about a coming domestic oil shortage and the threat posed by global warming. The author explains that the necessity to import petroleum is a threat to military security and the major cause of the U.S. balance-of-trade deficit, but it is not a significant contributor to global warming. "As far as global warming is concerned," he writes, "the developed world is becoming irrelevant. Every 10 percent cut in US emissions is completely negated by 6 months of China's emission growth." Muller writes that a decent alternative would be a worldwide switch from coal to natural gas, which could halve the rate of carbon dioxide emissions. For the longer term, he anticipates that the developing sector will adopt nuclear power, employing small modular nuclear reactors that are designed to be intrinsically safe. Muller makes an intriguing case that for the U.S., extracting natural gas and oil from shale will be cost-effective, can be regulated to ensure environmental safety, and is a plentiful, untapped source of supply (substantiating his claim with a detailed overview of the technology). In his opinion, plug-in electric automobiles will prove unfeasible because of the time required to recharge them and the replacement cost of batteries, but hybrid vehicles that use gasoline or natural gas as fuel are an attractive option. An informative, comprehensive discussion of important economic and environmental issues.

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