Table of Contents
Introduction xi
Consumption (C)
1 Automobile Sales 3
2 Chain Store Sales 8
3 Consumer Sentiment 13
4 Existing Home Sales 18
5 Underemployment or Slack 23
Investment (I)
6 Book-to-Bill Ratio 31
7 Copper Price 36
8 Durable Goods Orders 41
9 Housing Permits and Starts 46
10 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 51
11 Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey 56
12 Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Survey 61
13 JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index 66
14 London Metal Exchange Inventories 71
15 Personal Savings Rate 76
16 Unit Labor Costs 81
Government (G)
17 Federal Government Budget Deficits and the National Debt 89
Net Exports (NX)
18 Baltic Dry Index 97
19 Big Mac Index 102
20 Current Account Deficit 108
21 Oil Inventories 113
22 Tankan Survey 118
23 TIC Data 123
Multiple Components
24 Beige Book 131
25 Crack Spread 136
26 Credit Availability Oscillator 141
27 Federal Funds Rate 146
28 Fertility Rates 150
29 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita 156
30 Libor 161
31 M2 Money Supply 166
32 New Home Sales 171
33 Philadelphia Fed: The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index 176
34 Philadelphia Fed: Business Outlook Survey 181
35 Real Interest Rates 186
36 Short Interest 191
37 Russell 2000 196
38 Weekly Leading Index 201
39 Yield Curve 206
Inflation, Fear, and Uncertainty
40 GDP Deflator 213
41 Gold Price 218
42 Misery Index 223
43 Producer Price Index 227
44 Retail Investment Activity 231
45 Credit Spreads: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates 235
46 Ted Spread 241
47 Texas "Zombie Bank" Ratio 246
48 TIPS Spread 250
49 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 255
50 VIXEN Index 260
Conclusion: Putting It All Together 265
Appendix: Useful Economic Indicators Websites 275
Selected Bibliography 279
Acknowledgments 281