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    Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects

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    by Tom DeMarco, Tim Lister


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    Tom Demarco and Timothy Lister are principals of The Atlantic Systems Guild (www.systemsguild.com), a consulting firm specializing in the complex processes of system building, with particular emphasis on the human dimension. Together, they have lectured, written, and consulted internationally since 1979 on management, estimating, productivity, and corporate culture.

     

    Tom is the author or coauthor of nine books on subjects ranging from development methods to organizational function and dysfunction, as well as two novels and a book of short stories. His consulting practice focuses primarily on expert witness work, balanced against the occasional project and team consulting assignment. For the past three years, he has been teaching undergraduate ethics at the University of Maine. He lives with his wife, Sally O. Smyth, in Camden, Maine.

     

    Tim divides his time among consulting, teaching, and writing. Based in Manhattan, Tim is coauthor, with Tom DeMarco, of Adrenaline Junkies and Template Zombies: Understanding Patterns of Project Behavior (Dorset House, 2008), written with four other principals of The Atlantic Systems Guild, and Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams,Third Edition (Addison-Wesley, 2013). He is a member of the IEEE, the ACM, and the Cutter IT Trends Council, and is a Cutter Fellow.

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    Table of Contents

    Prologue: The Ethics of Belief         3

     

    PART I: WHY         7

     

    Chapter 1: Running Toward Risk         9

     

    Chapter 2: Risk Management Is Project Management for Adults        15

     

    Chapter 3: Denver International Airport Reconsidered         22

     

    Chapter 4: The Case for Risk Management         29

     

    PART II: WHY NOT         35

     

    Chapter 5: The Case Against Risk Management         37

     

    Chapter 6: The Onus of Uncertainty        42

     

    Chapter 7: Luck          46

     

    PART III: HOW         51

     

    Chapter 8: Quantifying Uncertainty         53

     

    Chapter 9: Mechanics of Risk Management        60

     

    Chapter 10: Risk Management Prescription         73

     

    Chapter 11:. Back to Basics         80

     

    Chapter 12: Tools and Procedures        91

     

    Chapter 13: Core Risks of Software Projects         101

     

    Chapter 14: A Defined Processfor Risk Discovery         113

     

    Chapter 15: Risk Management Dynamics        121

     

    Chapter 16: Incrementalism for Risk Mitigation        128

     

    Chapter 17: The Ultimate Risk Mitigation Strategy       138

     

    PART IV: HOW MUCH        143

     

    Chapter 18: Value Quantification        147

     

    Chapter 19: Value Is Uncertain, Too          151

     

    Chapter 20: Sensitivity Analysis           156

     

    Chapter 21: Value Offsets Risk         160

     

    Chapter 22: Refining the Risk Management Prescription           164

     

    PART V: WHETHER OR NOT         169

     

    Chapter 23: Test for Risk Management         171

     

    Appendix A: The Ethics of Belief, Part 1         175

     

    Appendix B: Risk Template         181

     

    References          183

     

    Index         191

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    This is the digital version of the printed book (Copyright © 2003).

    If There’s No Risk On Your Next Project, Don’t Do It.

     

    Greater risk brings greater reward, especially in software development. A company that runs away from risk will soon find itself lagging behind its more adventurous competition. By ignoring the threat of negative outcomes–in the name of positive thinking or a can-do attitude–software managers drive their organizations into the ground.

     

    In Waltzing with Bears, Tom DeMarco and Timothy Lister–the best-selling authors of Peopleware–show readers how to identify and embrace worthwhile risks. Developers are then set free to push the limits.

     

    The authors present the benefits of risk management, including that it makes aggressive risk-taking possible, protects management from getting blindsided, provides minimum-cost downside protection, reveals invisible transfers of responsibility, isolates the failure of a subproject.

     

    Readers are armed with strategies for confronting the most common risks that software projects face: schedule flaws, requirements inflation, turnover, specification breakdown, and under-performance.

     

    Waltzing with Bears will help you mitigate the risks–before they turn into project-killing problems. Risks are out there–and they should be there–but there is a way to manage them.

     

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