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Laurence C. Smith earned his PhD at Cornell University, and is now professor and vice-chairman of geography and earth space sciences at the University of California in Los Angeles where he also lives.
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future
eBook
$50.00
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ISBN-13:
9781101443521
- Publisher: Temple Publications International, Inc.
- Publication date: 09/23/2010
- Sold by: Penguin Group
- Format: eBook
- Pages: 336
- Sales rank: 386,328
- File size: 2 MB
- Age Range: 18 Years
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A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience, distilling cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization.
The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, our environment is degrading, and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up. So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The result is both good news and bad: Eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly prosperous, powerful, and politically stable, while those closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding.
The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. But Smith offers more than a compendium of statistics and studies- he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim, collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book. It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity.
Packed with stunning photographs, original maps, and informative tables, this is the most authoritative, balanced, and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our children.
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Publishers Weekly
Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones." (Oct.)From the Publisher
"[The World in 2050] is a lively and impressive book, among the first in what promises to be an important publishing category, the explication of how the human landscape will be altered by artificially triggered climate change." -Wall Street Journal
"Smith's planetary palm-reading would be impressive enough, but he also managed to pull it off with literary gusto. He combines a wide-angle-lens analysis reminiscent of Jared Diamond with a knack for narrative, including tales of numerous visits to the Arctic."
-New Scientist
"Cleverly executed."
-Mother Jones
"One of the most head-turning books I've ever come across recently."
-Thomas PM Barnett, World Politics Review
"A charismatic rising star vividly relates the big challenges facing the world."
-Jared Diamond, author of the Pulitzer Prize winner Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse
"This is a blockbuster of clear argument, sophisticated use of multiple empirical sources, and cogent writing that makes a convincing case for the emergence of the deep Global North as the main beneficiary of emerging climatic and economic trends. Intelligently discussing the future requires exactly the balance of discerning empirical analysis and wise interpretive judgment to be found here."
-John Agnew, Professor of Geography UC, Los Angeles
Library Journal
Smith (geography, Univ. of California-Los Angeles) presents a world shaped by demography, resource demand, globalization, and climate change in which people, agriculture, and political power move northward. Northern Rim countries will flourish as equatorial countries struggle. Water scarcity, heat waves, energy needs, and urban growth figure prominently in Smith's discussions, which, at their core, address the complex relationships among people, the natural world, the built environment, and technology. He effectively uses personal experiences, maps, photos, and analogies to make science accessible and interesting to the nonscientist. Although Smith offers reasons to feel upbeat about a world undergoing forceful changes, he also presents a future full of challenges and solutions that may create difficulties of their own. The notes are a useful addition for readers interested in Smith's research. VERDICT Smith demonstrates the breadth of geography and emerges as a champion of the discipline. His engaging style and understandable prose will appeal to a wide range of readers interested in social and environmental sciences. Recommended for both public and academic libraries.—Robin K. Dillow, Oakton Community Coll., Des Plaines, IL